Mississippi Alluvial Valley waterfowl hunters search for ans

[Drakeshead]

Mississippi Alluvial Valley waterfowl hunters search for answers

Waterfowl seasons throughout the country are now officially closed. Die-hard waterfowl hunters are starting to feel the first symptoms of post-season regret. "Could I have hunted more? Could I have hunted in better places? Were my decoys wrong? Do I need a new gun?" Most importantly, this season many hunters are asking, "Where were the ducks?" Here are a few answers that might help solve the puzzling riddle many hunters faced in the Mid-South.

Winter waterfowl surveys conducted by state biologists in Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana and Missouri confirmed what hunters had reported: duck numbers were not what they expected. But it wasn't necessarily due to a lack of ducks – just ducks flocking to different habitats. Most hunters' expectations were high given the encouraging breeding numbers coming into the season. However, those expectations often met meager results thanks to some unusual weather conditions.

Arkansas Game and Fish Commission (AGFC) biologists flew midwinter aerial waterfowl surveys Jan. 4-6, just as the coldest weather in more than two decades was hitting that state. Preliminary estimates for the Delta region showed a population of roughly 2.8 million ducks, including 2.3 million mallards. While this number might seem high, AGFC waterfowl program coordinator Luke Naylor said it's important to keep in mind that this number is distributed across the large area of Delta acreage in the state. This high number is also deceptive because many ducks were using non-traditional habitats thanks to heavy rainfall and very low temperatures.

"Duck hunters who stuck to traditional areas often were disappointed with numbers of ducks seen. With the wetter than normal conditions, wintering ducks opted for non-traditional locations in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (MAV)," said DU Chief Biologist Dale Humburg.

Humburg is referring to the extremely heavy rainfall that hit Arkansas and the southern region in late December. Those rains flooded river bottoms, agricultural fields and other important waterfowl wintering areas. This wet period added to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) report of a statewide average precipitation of 70.52 inches, Arkansas' second wettest year on record. A few days after this December downpour, a mass of arctic air descended on the state, bringing the coldest temperatures in more than two decades.

Naylor said due to the excess water, many ducks opted for non-traditional habitat, such as scrub-shrub habitat in areas along major river bottomlands like the White and Arkansas rivers. Biologists also noticed heavy waterfowl concentrations in reforested wetlands such as Wetlands Reserve Program lands, which usually don't flood until later in the season. Observers reported a notable absence of birds from traditional habitat, such as flooded agricultural fields.

Kevin Brunke, a Mississippi waterfowl biologist, echoed the report that ducks often dispersed into non-traditional locations this season – often away from where hunters expected to find them – saying, "the part of the MAV south of Vicksburg had many more ducks than usual."

Just because the ducks weren't easily seen doesn't mean they weren't around, at least in Louisiana, said Larry Reynolds, a Louisiana waterfowl biologist.

"It's good to crunch the numbers before making any statements based on 'perception.' Coastal transects in Louisiana showed increases in duck numbers over those surveyed in December, and although they were somewhat lower than the 30-year average, they were well above the record low of 1.6 million a year ago." These numbers support the fact that, due to the excess water, ducks had more options for habitat and stayed away from traditional spots.

The situation in Missouri proved very similar. The arctic air that descended upon the state led to early January temperatures that were 10 to 23 degrees below the long-term state average. Ice quickly got thicker, with even the larger reservoirs in the state freezing over. Missouri waterfowl biologist Frank Nelson pointed out the obvious effect this drastic weather had on the state's duck numbers this season.

"The total number of ducks on surveyed areas in Missouri was lower than that in January 2009 and much lower than the five-year average on managed public wetlands. Simply put, the habitat, and therefore the ducks, were shut out by the icy temperatures."

Too much water, too warm early, too cold late – the scenarios for duck hunters in the region changed rapidly and drastically. With waterfowl not visiting traditional areas, blinds were quiet in rice fields and sloughs where the roar of a shotgun echoed regularly in the past.

—Lauren Oxner, Ducks Unlimited

[Buckwabit]

Kevin Burke is a Busy man.....

[bigwater]

the south delta!

makin me scratch me head since .... how long have i know you tadpole?

[lipsplitter39654]

thanks for the post Drakeshead. interesting reading. raised more questions than it answered to me though.

[Lodi Rebel]

Yeah, me too splitter... I know several different groups that hunted nontraditional areas and didn't do S#%T. I have alot more questions also..

[lipsplitter39654]

there are a few problems that they never mention that we can do nothing about. 1- our season needs to start later and end later, 2- no hunting areas on refuges and WMAs ducks can congregate by the thousands with no pressure, 3-migration has likely shifted west, 4-water water everywhere killed us this year which they did in fact mention 5 too many pacific fronts instead of arctic blasts. i could go on and on but it does no good. any way just my thoughts which with 50 cents will buy you a cheap cup of coffee

[Anatidae]

Hmmmmm....amazing....

(posted this on January 28th......)

It's been my experience if they aren't here by now they aren't coming.

True Dat........at least not during the regular season, anyway.

My thoughts are (for whatever they're worth):

The the week on both sides of the freeze-up was our best chance at any concentration. The word concentration has a dual meaning........1) the birds that remained in specific areas during freeze-up became concentrated on available open water in those areas......2) birds that are more tolerant of icy conditions showed-up to take the place of those that moved-on because they are less tolerant of icy conditions - hard to say if there was a net increase in the overall number of birds in a given area, other than areas that didn't have birds to begin with.

During thaw, I suspect there was a heavy fuel-replenishing period, then a return to isolated sections of surface water (that also increased dramatically prior to and after freeze-up). Some birds may have gone back North to familiar ground that they weren't pressured on - some may have remained (if they found areas that weren't heavily pressured. The fact that many folks saw fewer birds after the thaw just indicates that they aren't seeing any. Visual counts (fly-overs) on traditional holding areas confirms the decrease in bird numbers throughout the state, suggesting that there WAS , in fact, a net increase in the numbers during freeze-up.......or at least a significant decrease, afterwards.

Now......why did they leave? I suspect they didn't find a food source before they either became victim of pressure or endured pressure long enough to find security.......or there were concentrations of birds (on holding areas) that moved around as a mass.....to other holding areas that provided food and security.

So, what's the biggest problem......hype created on the internet......that leasds to increased density of folks with high expectation levels that just wanna shoot at something.....i.e......PRESSURE! The really informed 'hunters' would've known where they had to go to be successful under certain conditions......the inexperienced or those married to one location (a hole in the ground or trees) indicated they didn't really understand why ducks wouldn't look at their spot (under the premise that..."if I put decoys out, they will come"). You sit in one sopt long enough, patience wears thin....you're gonna shoot at anything you see. I digress.

So, in response to the original question......"will there be a big migration.....?.......not likely. It takes a series of significant weather events conducive to bird 'displacement' from secure areas, to move birds in significant numbers.

Ducks (over the last 15-40 years) have learned a few things from snow geese, apparently.. We (i.e. the hunting community as a whole), haven't.

.........apparently.

All this to coroborate what Jeff said (in fewer words - and greater effect) that birds don't leave food, security, and open water just cause the weather gets nasty one night. They will sit on ice for a week before they move completely out of an area. They may get hungry during that period, but they know it's worth waiting for thaw as opposed to getting pressured in unfamiliar territory.

IMHO

[davidees]

Anatidae, Ive been reading your posts all season long regarding the flyway shifting west and all that. Now Im not saying I disagree at all, but my question to you is why would the flyway shift? With all the food and water available in the delta, it seems like there would be no logical reason for them to head west like that. I also heard a lot of reports of folks in east MS and west AL killing a lot more mallards this year than they have in the past. Again, I dont necessarily disagree, Im just interested in your thoughts as to why it may be happening.

[H20fowlkiller]

Anatidae, Ive been reading your posts all season long regarding the flyway shifting west and all that. Now Im not saying I disagree at all, but my question to you is why would the flyway shift? With all the food and water available in the delta, it seems like there would be no logical reason for them to head west like that. I also heard a lot of reports of folks in east MS and west AL killing a lot more mallards this year than they have in the past. Again, I dont necessarily disagree, Im just interested in your thoughts as to why it may be happening.

Not speaking on behalf of Anatidae, but putting my .02 out there, yes the ms. flyway has alot of food available, so does the midwest and parts of oklahoma and texas. The Ms. flyway is probably the hardest hunted flyway. Ducks are not different from you or I, example: If you were going to work and had to go completely across town now, Route 1) You go right through the middle of town and some shady parts of town (not the safest). Route 2) You go around town and its twice as safe. Which would you go?

[davidees]

Anatidae, Ive been reading your posts all season long regarding the flyway shifting west and all that. Now Im not saying I disagree at all, but my question to you is why would the flyway shift? With all the food and water available in the delta, it seems like there would be no logical reason for them to head west like that. I also heard a lot of reports of folks in east MS and west AL killing a lot more mallards this year than they have in the past. Again, I dont necessarily disagree, Im just interested in your thoughts as to why it may be happening.

Not speaking on behalf of Anatidae, but putting my .02 out there, yes the ms. flyway has alot of food available, so does the midwest and parts of oklahoma and texas. The Ms. flyway is probably the hardest hunted flyway. Ducks are not different from you or I, example: If you were going to work and had to go completely across town now, Route 1) You go right through the middle of town and some shady parts of town (not the safest). Route 2) You go around town and its twice as safe. Which would you go?

I see your point, but hasnt it always been that way?

[H20fowlkiller]

Increased pressure over the Ms, flyway the past 10-15 years and agricultural changes have probably made it more noticable recently

[Faithful Retrievers]

I think that there are alot of factors, but the main one being they didn't show up. We hunted hard fields, rivers, sloughs, and between. I have gone out this week to the same places and there are more ducks than I have ever seen. Did they decide to come east, no its just got bad enough to get them here with the amount of food around. There also was alot of water, we had several fields we dont pump but filled up on there own like several others allowed.

[Anatidae]

Davidees, I agree - it makes no sense that they would head West. I offered that in one post because a fella thought the ducks went South after the thaw.......hell, maybe they did......It'd be much more likely that they would head North if they ever got here at all. I really think they were here all along.......and people started seeing them in larger concentrations during freeze-upsomewhere other than where they were hunting......then they dispersed back into the remote places that they weren't pressured in.

The notion that a flyway actually 'shifts' is something I've never really subscribed to - because the 4 flyways don't have any geopgraphical boundaries.......or are not clearly defined. The data collected over many years of band returns is (what I presume) loosely forms the flyways as they've traditionally been known. History changes things. Bird movements are influenced by changes in weather, farm practices, pressure, etc.......but mostly weather influenced changes (which includes flooding, drought, freeze-up, snow cover, crop production, harvest, and spoilage or available waste grain, etc.).

When weather changes, it causes wildlife to have to adapt for survival. So, I guess you could say there are slight shifts in bird movements (and concentrations) from year to year. I don't call that a Flyway 'shift'.....but a reaction to various weather-related influences on their behavior. It would be interesting to know what the band return data for the past 10 years tells biologists about 'shifts' in concentration. At best, I suspect that it only suggests the possibility that more birds were killed in gunning traditional areas where weather wasn't as much of a factor than in traditional gunning areas (or as the biologists termed).....habitat in areas that WERE affected by dramatic deviations in normal weather patterns for a specific area (i.e. MAV).

I'm just flying by the seat of my pants here, and admit that my observations' similarity to the report posted are based purely on conjecture.....I admit.....posting my previous statements (of January 28th) in this thread may have seemed a bit arrogant. Rather, it surprises me that I wasn't that far off (on some points......clueless, on others).

I just know when we've witnessed significant cold-weather events while hunting in Saskatchewan over the past 7 years, birds' patterns change dramatically around freeze-up or other storm systems.....they feed with more urgency and return to water immediately after gorging themselves. And they'll sit on ice all morning and all afternoon, and bomb a field for 30 minutes around noon and then about 4'oclock. I don't know what that means, other than that when things thaw-out, they resume their normal daybreak feeding, loaf during the day, and hit the fields again around 3 o'clock. It's been more difficult (for me) to pattern birds around freeze-up........the windows are much smaller.

I totally had the migration (ducks) in SK figured wrong this year. I thought they had overflown mid-latitude SK while we were there (Oct 10 - Nov and were hanging around all the snows and cranes in Southern SK.......when as it turned-out, the folks we stay with up there were combining on November 18th in T-shirts......and they said the ducks just got there and were piling-in on the fresh grain right behind the combine........by the thousands, they said. The heavy concentrations of ducks are usually gone by the middle of Nov in that area......but this year, they were just arriving.

I'd have to go back to another post I made this year........something to the affect...."It would be interesting to debate the concept of 'Flyway shifts'".......like I said, I don't really subscribe to that in the literal sense.....but I DO believe that the mass concentrations of migrating waterfowl's movements are influenced by weather and the timing of those events relative to where they are when it hits. I suppose that constitutes a 'shift' of sorts.......but I'm reluctant to say the flyway itself shifts because they are defined only by historical data (if I understand anything about'em, at all).

Summary: The flyways are still what they were 70 years ago.......the birds may have just been 'influenced' to use a different one than in a previous year.

Blast away

[Double R 2]

I agree entirely with the experts: ducks didn't use the traditional habitat (of waterbodies in the south as it seemed to many!)

[SWAG]

Traditional hot spots were certainly down as everyone as said. There are 1000 excuses one can come up with as to why things were not as expected. I saw bird counts all season from up and down the MS Flyaway and the number of ducks were below normal most of the time no matter where the count was being taken. Not like ducks were sitting on the freeze line in MO and just not making it to MS as has been the case in recent years. This season was started with an abundance of water all across the nation. I have co-workers in Dallas/Ft Worth who used to live and hunt here. Since moving out there they have gone on several guided or pay hunts in TX or OK the last 4 years. This year was the only time they have had anything close to what they were used to seeing in MS. They have always killed ducks on their hunts out there, just not used to seeing the number of waterfowl in the air that they saw this season. It makes sense as ducks left the Dakotas that they just puddle jumped their way due south to KS, NE, OK, and TX. There was water and food in areas that in most years would not be. Why turn southeast and follow the MO River to the MS River system if you did not need to? I fully believe that a lot of "our" ducks were enjoying the flavor of more western grown grain this past season. Will these ducks return to the MS Flyaway next season? I would assume so if "normal" weather patterns return. What about imprinting? I am a firm believer in it and have seen places improve over the years by maintaining good habitat in Feb-Mar. Why did the "imprinting" tool not make make these ducks come down the MS Flyaway instead of puddle jumping their way down the Central Flyaway? I do not know, wish a biologist would tell me when imprinting over-rides what a duck see right in front of him. We can all come up with theories as to where they were or why this/that happened, but the truth of the matter is you need REAL numbers to go with everything in order to come up with sound evaluations. We know the ducks exist, USFW told us all summer they existed, we know their numbers are not skewed don't we??? I will stick with the puddle jumping/Central Flyaway/abundant water theory because at least it gives me hope that ducks will be back to "normal" when everything else is back to normal.