Thoughts on lease prices

[GulfCoast]

Well, it is getting to be the time of year that farmers want to start getting the money for duck leases. Most of them I have ever been involved in want their money in June.

It will be interesting to see if there is any
significant change up or down in lease prices this year given the impact of several factors:

1) Last years crummy season due to warm weather and flooding;

2) The uncertain status of the season length, bag limits and closure date(who wants to pay more for less days and ducks?);

3) The fact that more and more people are impounding water in order to get in on the "duck hunting money" despite the decrease in the number of ducks;

4) The fact that a lot of marginal bean land is being put in CRP this year;

5) The continuing influx of new hunters due to the sudden new found "cache" of duck hunting among the former golf set. This may abate sharply if the limits/season get snipped by the Feds in July.


For what it is worth, I predict that this will be a transitional year for lease prices in many aspects. A lot of new leases are coming on the market, and I know of several pieces of property that went "unleased" last year.

However, a lot of leases are losing value since CRP is replacing beans in some areas. In general, I look for prices to have peaked last year, at least for a while.

In the end, I don't think a proven lease with good amenities will ever decrease in price.

I think that the "no guaranteed water" marginal bean field leases will begin to drop in price this year, since so many new people are making the improvements for impounding
water on their land to invite lease dollars.

The tough area to predict is the "newly impounded water" leases that do not have a proven track record with ducks. I venture to say that most of these will end up in
the $7.00 to $11.00 an acre range if they do not have some really nice amenities.

It is often said that "You always have to wonder why a good duck lease is being offered to you, if it was any good, it would already be leased." However, prices have really been going through the roof, and some land owners
priced themselves out of the market last year. A new lease is even trickier to "figure on."

Who knows what lease prices will do this year. However, it will be interesting to me to watch and see what happens with so many things going on with the climate, seasons and duck hunting in general.

[Doc & Nash]

I for one will not be getting a lease this year, Due to all the uncertianties, I feel that public land is the safe bet next year. Why shell out thousands of dollers for a duck hole when the public land for all practical perposes will provide enough birds to fill the speculated limits??? If last years limit would have been three birds, there were very few days that me and my hunting party did not limit out and on those that we did not kill birds, the guys on the $$$ leases had the same luck.

I believe that I am going to set aside my hunting lease $$$ for a few years for a down payment on my own land. If I would have done that 10 yrs ago when I started hunting instead of leasing I would have a nice place by know. After all a thousand dollers a year adds up.

I think the people who have attempted to "cash" in over the past few years, either by sub-leasing or setting up mediocre guide services are going to find them selves up a creek with out a paddle these next few years. Simply because all the fair weather duck hunters are going to stay at home or go back to deer hunting.

[GulfCoast]

I agree that we all should be putting aside some money if we can to buy instead of lease. If the population drops, ducks get scarce, and farmers get the bite, you may start being able to pick up marginal bean land for 400-500 an acre pretty quick.

[pushpole]

We looked at a new lease this year. The first property we viewed, we offered 10.00 per acre. This property was not proven nor did it have guaranteed water. The access to the land could not be limited, there was no place to stay, it basically was a day hunt area. The owners wanted to limit the amount of time the property was to be hunted as well as the number on the property, plus they requested liability insurance for their protection.

We passed the opportunity up.

FYI
EM R Ducks
pushpole

[peewee]

Gulfcoast I believe your predictions are probably real close. At least I hope so, these high leases scare me, you begin to started wondering the the average middle man can afford it.

[Jeff]

Well my lease is cheaper than hunting public land and if it sucks, I'm 15 min. from the best duckin' in the US, so I'll keep mine. However I bet for sure if the limit drops there will be plenty of people droppin' out of leases.

[booger]

I haven't leased in years so I'm certainly out of touch on prices, availability etc. however everyones an expert on the internet right? [img]images/smiles/icon_rolleyes.gif[/img]

So I say that prices will stay the same until the last minute and then drop like a rock as they'll be fewer takers. The last two so-so/crummy seasons will have discouraged all but the hard-core. I just don't think the farmers phone is going to ring like it used to and if it does, the price will scare 'em away.

[mississippi_duc_htr]

Well u fellas hunt private land and in the delta more than I do but here's my view on it. If most of the farmers want their money in june then I would say that they will hold lease prices up for one more year because no one know what the season framework will look like. If duck season is cut back and the limits are too then lease and land prices will fall too, but alot of the guys that pay HIGH dollar leases dont really care what they pay. They got it too spend and dont mind doing so. Some of them picked up leases for 5 or ten years and are locked in to that rate. I hunt public land and have never paid for a duck lease so it just my opinoin on what land leases will do but I figure it will stay high for @ least another year.Then again Gulfcoast could be right. [img]images/smiles/icon_wink.gif[/img]

[ May 06, 2002: Message edited by: mississippi_duc_htr ]

[Duck Nawteek]

I agree with GC on this one I kinda wondering how this up coming season is gonna affect lease prices. If they lower the season and limits then I think that some of these farmers are gonna have to come off some of the high dollar leases. Just my 2 cents. [img]images/smiles/icon_eek.gif[/img] [img]images/smiles/icon_eek.gif[/img]

[Don Miller]

I have paid my lease in full already. I think that some of the duck land that does not have years of history, may set idle or can be leased at a reduced price. The properties that have years and years of proven history, will lease for the same price even if the duck season goes to 30 days. If it goes to 30 or 45 days for the 2003-2004 season, I am going to try to work out a compromise with the land owner on the price based on a per day cost at 60 days and apply it to 30 or 45 days. There are enough high rollers out there that will pay what ever it takes to secure a sure thing as far as a quality lease goes. The land owner knows that, so I don't think he will be willing to lower the price even if it goes to 30 days.

[Model12]

I like this kind of talk. PushPole, tell me who you turned down on that lease and I'll look at it and then turn him down too. I know a few "good ole boys" with some dollars to spend and they are all holding it to see what will happen. Like GC, I think this will be a big "transition" year. I personally hope the golfers go back to the club, and the deer hunters...well you get the picture. Be patient and remember...Someone will be glad to take your money, so let um work a little for it.... [img]images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img]

[SCOOTER]

our lease stayed at the same price. but even if it went up i'm still keeping it.

[timberjack]

I have discovered over the years that if you want to be successful buying land that you must think like the landowner. I believe that the same applies to leasing. If you were one of these landowners who had a pretty nice hole to lease would you rather lease it out cheap to the first guy that came along talking about how crappy last season was and how short and crappy the coming season probably will be? Or would you not panic and hold off for as long as you could and wait for the deep pockets to come along? Most of us would choose option 2 and the sad thing about it is that those deep pockets usually do come along. An old man once told me, "prices never come down as fast as they go up". I think you'll see lease prices come down but not much this season and if we have a good upcoming season you can forget it, they'll be right back where they were last year. My 2 cents

[peewee]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">quote:</font><HR>An old man once told me, "prices never
come down as fast as they go up". <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

He forgot to tell World Com that! [img]images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img] [img]images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img] [img]images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img]

[GulfCoast]

Several that have been offered to me lately have either stayed the same or come down slightly. These were guaranteed water/no clubhouse deals.